Rays of hope have started to peep through the cloud-covered economic horizon – even in the new EU member states. Poland has managed to avoid going into recession. The Baltic states, which were on the verge of collapse until recently, have recorded a slight but encouraging restoration of productivity. The European Commission included Estonia and Bulgaria in the top five EU countries with the greatest financial stability.

But the devil is in the details. Everybody knows that when the global economic crisis ends, everything will be different, but nobody can be certain how exactly things will change. One of the biggest questions concerns those EU countries which entered the union in the expansions of 2004 and 2007. For them, the crisis may continue, despite the encouraging news. Having shaken off the restrictions of Communism only 20 years ago, they are now facing a difficult task. They have to continue with reforms in the areas of education, social policy and healthcare. Since the EU considered these areas a matter of national policy rather than general policy, they were not paid particular attention during the pre-accession period. Now, like all the other countries, the new member states have to deal with the crisis too and when they emerge from it, they will have to adapt to the new realities – whatever they may be.

Perhaps the new EU member states can prove the aptness of the cliché that a crisis is just an opportunity. All they have to do is act quickly and sensibly. The New Reform Agenda of the New EU Member States International Conference focused on the risks they are facing and what the best model for action might be.

The event, organised by the European Policy Initiative, a programme of the Open Society Institute think tank, and the World Bank in Sofia, brought together delegates from all over Europe, including World Bank experts and three Bulgarian ministers.

One of the main dangers for the new member states, especially those experiencing recession, is that their development may slow down relative to that of the older member states, said Tonny Lybek, IMF Resident Representative for Bulgaria and Romania. Before the crisis started, "new EU member states" and "rapid economic growth" had become nearly synonymous. The positive state of the world economy boosted their exports and western banks quickly entered the local markets. Excited by the prospect of joining the EU, their governments implemented liberal economic policies. However, when the crisis struck, the foundation of the previous growth turned into a foundation for economic problems. The budget deficit went up and the extent of the involvement of the failing western banks hit local economies. Exports and foreign investment reduced sharply and the GDP began to fall – in the case of the Baltic republics, by over 10 percent. Economic difficulties are a source of real danger for the new member states: they could slow down the necessary reforms. According to Marek Dabrowski, President of the Centre for Social and Economic Research, this may lead to another danger. The EU may split into two camps: the rich and their poor relatives. Florian Fichtl, country manager of Sofia's World Bank office, thinks that the new member states will need much longer to recover from the crisis than the old ones.

Despite the encouraging signs of stabilisation in the countries of the region, their governments, citizens and entrepreneurs are facing incredible difficulties. Unemployment is on the increase and so, as a result, is social expenditure. Private companies and individuals find it increasingly difficult to repay their bank loans and access to credit is limited. Banks are also at a disadvantage because it is almost imposwsible to rely on capital inflows from abroad.